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Patterns, Trends and Predictions in stock market indices and foreign currency exchange rates

机译:股票市场指数和国外的模式,趋势和预测   货币汇率

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摘要

Specialized topics on financial data analysis from a numerical and physicalpoint of view are discussed. They pertain to the analysis of crash predictionin stock market indices and to the persistence or not of coherent and randomsequences in fluctuations of foreign exchange currency rates. A briefhistorical introduction to crashes is given, including recent observations onthe DJIA and the S&P500. Daily data of the DAX index are specifically used forillustration. The method for visualizing the pattern thought to be theprecursor signature of financial crashes is outlined. The log-periodicity ofthe pattern is investigated. Comparison of patterns before and after crash daysis made through the power spectrum. The corresponding fractal dimension of thesignal looks like that of a percolation backbone. Next the fluctuations ofexchange rates (XR) of currencies forming $EUR$ with respect to $USD$ areanalyzed. The XR power spectra are calculated before and after crashes. Adetrended fluctuation analysis is performed. The characteristic exponents$\beta$ and $\alpha$ respectively, are compared, including the time dependenceof each $\alpha$, found to be singular near crash dates.
机译:从数值和物理角度讨论了有关财务数据分析的专门主题。它们涉及对股票市场指数中的崩溃预测的分析,并且涉及外汇汇率波动的连贯性和随机性序列是否持续存在。简要介绍了撞车事故,包括最近对DJIA和S&P500的观察。 DAX索引的每日数据专门用于说明。概述了可视化被认为是金融崩溃的前兆特征的模式的方法。研究了图案的对数周期性。通过功率谱比较碰撞日前后的模式。信号的相应分形维数看起来像是渗滤主干的维数。接下来,分析形成美元对美元对美元的货币的汇率波动。 XR功率谱是在碰撞前后计算的。进行了趋势波动分析。比较了特征指数$ \ beta $和$ \ alpha $,包括每个$ \ alpha $的时间相关性,发现它们在碰撞日期附近是奇异的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ausloos, M.; Ivanova, K.;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2001
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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